Dr. Jean-Marc F. Blanchard's blog

How fast sentiments can change! The much vaunted opening of China’s financial sector to foreign banking, insurance, and securities firms has become a source of angst with observers now wondering if foreign financial players such as Allianz, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Nomura, and UBS will get caught up, directly or indirectly, in China-United States (US) tensions relating to geopolitics, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, Covid-19, and the changed status of Hong Kong. Potentially at risk are billions of dollars in FDI such companies have spent to acquire majority stakes in or establish securities joint ventures (JVs), build up their China insurance operations, and begin mutual fund operations.

The coronavirus, otherwise known as Covid-19, has hit foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China hard. This should surprise no one—money is scarce; the payback from FDI now seems far away; and resources are being husbanded on the home front.

Previously, I expressed mild skepticism and then later guarded optimism about China’s financial sector opening. The recent United States-China Phase One trade deal suggests the situation may be even better than originally thought with one entire chapter of the agreement speaking to the sector’s opening.

Recently, foreign pharmaceutical makers such as AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Sanofi, and Roche slashed the prices of a large number of drugs sold in China, the world’s second largest drug market.

In May, China passed a new law relating to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that comes into effect at the beginning of 2020. This law replaces three laws relating to wholly-owned foreign enterprises, contractual joint ventures (JVs), and equity JVs that previously constituted China’s formal FDI regime.