"Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: The case of carbon constrained China"

China's energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 Year Plan. Our approach combines the Shannon–Wiener, Herfindahl–Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China's coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990swill not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China back from realising its full potential.

*This publication comes from Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis and Keagan Rubel, "Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: The case of carbon constrained China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2015).

**Posting of this report does not represent an endorsement by the Mr. & Mrs. S.H. Wong Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations and has been done to facilitate research and promote debate about multinational corporations/FDI in and from East Asia.