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Many contend the lesson of Covid-19 is the need to reduce global business activities, particularly the United States (US)’s dependence on China for imports of manufactured goods. They further assert American multinational corporations (MNCs) operating overseas, particularly in China, should return to the US, undertaking a so-called a “reshoring strategy.” The wisdom of such propositions, however, is open to debate.

The recent passage of the National Security Law for Hong Kong has raised all kinds of quandaries for high-technology and other companies, especially those that deal in data. This is so because the new law makes it easier for government authorities to access data, restrict the kinds of content that are published, and control the transmission of data. In the event of noncompliance with (vague and likely fluid) regulations, firms risk significant fines, imprisonment, or other sanctions. There has been a mild reaction by big firms such as Apple, Facebook, and Google, but they are not located in Hong Kong per se and their longer-term plans are unclear. Businesses actually located in Hong Kong face a serious quandary.

How fast sentiments can change! The much vaunted opening of China’s financial sector to foreign banking, insurance, and securities firms has become a source of angst with observers now wondering if foreign financial players such as Allianz, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Nomura, and UBS will get caught up, directly or indirectly, in China-United States (US) tensions relating to geopolitics, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, Covid-19, and the changed status of Hong Kong. Potentially at risk are billions of dollars in FDI such companies have spent to acquire majority stakes in or establish securities joint ventures (JVs), build up their China insurance operations, and begin mutual fund operations.

The coronavirus, otherwise known as Covid-19, has hit foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China hard. This should surprise no one—money is scarce; the payback from FDI now seems far away; and resources are being husbanded on the home front.

Previously, I expressed mild skepticism and then later guarded optimism about China’s financial sector opening. The recent United States-China Phase One trade deal suggests the situation may be even better than originally thought with one entire chapter of the agreement speaking to the sector’s opening.